As I sit here watching the Milwaukee Panthers practice, I can't help but wonder if this could finally be their year to break through to the NCAA Tournament. Having followed college basketball for over two decades, I've seen plenty of promising mid-major teams come and go, but there's something different about this Panthers squad that's got me genuinely excited. The energy in the UWM Panther Arena feels electric this season, and much of that buzz centers around their towering presence in the paint - 6-foot-11 forward Santiago Fajardo, who's been nothing short of transformative for this program.
When Fajardo transferred from New Mexico State last year, I'll admit I had my doubts about how quickly he'd adapt to the Horizon League. But watching him dominate in the paint this season has been a revelation. The guy's averaging 14.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game while shooting an impressive 58% from the field. Those numbers don't even tell the whole story though - his defensive presence has completely changed how opponents approach the Panthers. Teams are shooting just 42% inside the arc against Milwaukee, down from 48% last season, and that's largely because Fajardo's altering shots and cleaning up defensive mistakes.
I remember talking to Coach Bart Lundy after their recent upset win over Dayton, and he couldn't stop raving about Fajardo's impact. "For all of these, the 6-foot-11 Fajardo remained grateful," Lundy told me, emphasizing how the big man's humble attitude has permeated throughout the locker room. That gratitude and team-first mentality might sound like coach speak, but I've seen it firsthand in how this team operates. They genuinely seem to enjoy each other's success, and that chemistry is paying dividends in close games where they've gone 5-2 in contests decided by five points or fewer.
The Panthers currently sit at 16-8 overall and 9-4 in Horizon League play, putting them in solid position to secure a top-four conference tournament seed. Looking at their remaining schedule, I count at least four very winnable games that should get them to 20 wins before the conference tournament even begins. That's typically the magic number that gets the selection committee's attention for at-large consideration, though I should note that Milwaukee's non-conference strength of schedule sits at a concerning 245th nationally. They'll need to keep winning, plain and simple.
What really gives me hope about this team's tournament chances is their balanced scoring attack. Beyond Fajardo, they've got three other players averaging double figures - BJ Freeman at 17.2 points per game, Erik Pratt at 12.1, and Kentrell Pullian at 10.8. That kind of scoring diversity makes them incredibly difficult to game plan against, as Saint Louis found out the hard way when Pratt dropped 25 on them despite their defensive focus on Fajardo. I've seen too many mid-major teams rely on one superstar who gets shut down in tournament settings, but Milwaukee's multiple weapons give them a fighting chance against anyone.
The Horizon League tournament format does them no favors though - it's a brutal setup where the top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, but everyone else has to fight through multiple rounds. Milwaukee currently projects as the third seed, meaning they'd need to win three games in five days to secure the automatic bid. That's where Fajardo's durability becomes crucial - the big man is averaging 28 minutes per game, but he might need to push closer to 35 during that tournament grind. I'm cautiously optimistic he can handle that workload, given he's played full 40-minute games twice this season without showing significant fatigue.
Looking at their potential path to the NCAA Tournament, I see two realistic scenarios. The clearest path is winning the Horizon League tournament, which would give them the automatic bid. The other possibility, though less likely, involves them winning out in the regular season, getting to the conference tournament final, and hoping other bubble teams collapse. Their early-season win against a Power Five opponent (they beat Boston College 73-69 back in November) could look increasingly valuable if they find themselves on the bubble come Selection Sunday.
From my perspective, what makes this Milwaukee team special isn't just their talent - it's their resilience. They've battled through adversity all season, including a three-game losing streak in January that would have derailed lesser teams. Instead, they responded by winning six of their next seven, with Fajardo posting three double-doubles during that stretch. That mental toughness is exactly what you need when tournament pressure mounts, and it's why I'm higher on this Panthers team than any Milwaukee squad I've covered in recent memory.
The reality is that mid-major programs like Milwaukee face an uphill battle every season. The resources, exposure, and recruiting advantages that Power Five schools enjoy create a systemic imbalance that's tough to overcome. Yet every so often, a team like this Panthers squad emerges with the right combination of talent, coaching, and timing to crash the party. With Fajardo anchoring their defense and multiple scoring options on offense, they've got the blueprint to make some noise in March.
As we head into the final weeks of the regular season, I'm keeping a close eye on Milwaukee's defensive efficiency numbers, which have improved from 187th nationally last season to 89th this year. That dramatic improvement is the single biggest reason I believe this team has legitimate tournament potential. Good defense travels, as they say, and it gives you a chance even when your shots aren't falling. Combine that with Fajardo's continued development - he's improved his free throw percentage from 62% to 74% this season - and you've got a recipe for postseason success.
Will they actually make it? My heart says yes, but my head tells me they'll likely need to win the Horizon League tournament to get there. The margin for error is razor-thin for teams at this level, and one bad shooting night in March can end your dreams. Still, I'm more optimistic about Milwaukee's chances than I've been in years. They've got the pieces, they've got the chemistry, and they've got that game-changing big man who continues to make everyone around him better. For all of these reasons, and for the way this team has captured the imagination of Milwaukee basketball fans, I believe this could indeed be their breakthrough season. The journey will be tough, the competition fierce, but something tells me we haven't seen the last of these Panthers just yet.
